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Welcome to summer peak season, travelers! Here’s the skinny.
While we can’t predict the future (no matter how hard we try), trends can tell us quite a bit about the forecast of summer 2025 travel. And—are you sitting down?—this year may not be all that bad!
Despite the news circulating around Newark disruptions over the past month or so, these instances are relatively isolated to this airport. We’re not currently seeing issues like this across the country.
Also, TSA numbers have been on a softening streak since last September. While demand will be higher over the next few months compared to the rest of the year, the rate of growth has significantly slowed down, and that’ll likely continue into the summer. Plus, supply of seats is currently outpacing demand from travelers, meaning flights will be cheaper and you’ll have more rebooking options if a situation arises.
Cancellation rates have also been on the decline since the messy post-pandemic years. Now we’re starting to see these rates around what they were pre-pandemic. (And while we can’t predict the weather either, it tends to be better during the warmer months when we don’t have blizzards and ice to worry about, which means fewer cancellations across the board.)
All of that said, we’re cautiously optimistic that this summer will be less chaotic than many travelers expect. Even so, there are still some steps that you can take to help prepare yourself for disruptions.
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1. Fly early in the day
It’s wise to book your flights departing as early in the day as possible. Delays tend to pile up as the day goes on, with early morning flights the least likely to see significant delays. In general, the first flights of the day tend to have an on-time performance rate more than 25 percentage points higher than afternoon and evening flights.
There are two reasons for this. First, the weather tends to be better in the morning (fewer thunderstorms). More importantly, the plane has been parked at the airport overnight—it’s ready to go. Afternoon flights almost always use a plane that has to fly in from elsewhere, and if that flight gets disrupted, then your flight is at risk.
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2. Get REAL ID ready
Already got your REAL ID? Skip ahead! Don’t have yours yet? Listen up. We’ve been hearing for years that you’ll be required to have a REAL ID to fly, and on May 7th, the rule officially went into effect.
This mandates that air travelers 18 years or older have a REAL ID—a state-issued form of personal identification that meets security standards set by the REAL ID Act of 2005—in order to fly on a commercial plane.
If you don’t have a REAL ID, you’re not barred from flying—you can use alternative forms of identification, such as a passport or Global Entry card. But if you show up to the airport without any of the above, you’ll need to go through an identity verification process, which can take an hour or more.
The added time to go through security may cause late arrivers to miss their flight, so plan ahead. And if you choose not to comply with this protocol or your identity cannot be verified, you will not be allowed to go through security. If you’re in doubt about whether you’ll be allowed to fly, go ahead and apply for your REAL ID to avoid the hassle.
Note: You will still need a passport in order to travel internationally, by plane or if you drive across the border to Canada or Mexico. A REAL ID does not take the place of your passport.
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3. Know your rights
When you’re traveling and your flight gets canceled or you get bumped to a new flight, it can feel like the world is working against you. Luckily, passengers have rights—but it’s up to you to take advantage of them. Here’s a quick rundown:
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Has your flight undergone a “major change” (3+ hours domestic / 6+ hours international)? You’re owed a refund or a free switch to a different (and possibly better) flight.
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Was your flight canceled, and you don’t want to fly anymore? You’re entitled to a full refund, even if you booked basic economy.
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Did the airline rebook you, but you want a different flight? Call or message your airline’s customer service line, and request a flight that works better for you.
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The airline didn’t grant you a refund if you were owed one? Call again to speak with a different agent, file a DOT complaint, or dispute the charge via your credit card.
And remember, a flight change or cancellation may not be the worst thing. In fact, you can use it in your favor. You can use it to your advantage to switch up to a better flight, whether that means one that leaves earlier in the morning, is now nonstop when your original flight had a connection, or allows you to transit through a city with a free stopover program (hellooo, Iceland!).
Still have questions about your rights in flight change and cancellation situations?
Read our guide for more tips on rerouting, refunds, and making changes work in your favor.
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4. Book nonstop when you can
Nonstop flights are also much less likely to have significant disruptions. This is because delays happen far more than cancellations. In 2024, 20.54% of flights in the US were delayed, compared to just 1.36% of flights that were canceled—15x less.
Delays are inconvenient with nonstop flights, but they can totally upend a connecting flight. If your nonstop flight gets delayed two hours, it’s annoying, but you’ll still arrive two hours late. If your connecting flight gets delayed two hours, for many trips, that means missing the connection. In some cases, a missed connection could mean waiting until the following day or longer for the next available flight.
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5. Give yourself more time—then add more to it
Pilot and staffing shortages, as well as sky-high demand for flights, have been a thorn in the side of summer travel for the past several years. But with the staffing shortages over largely resolved and travel demand softening, airports are looking like they may be a little calmer this summer.
With that being said, summer travel is just that—summer travel—so we advise that you don’t get too cocky with this bit of information. To be on the safe side, get to the airport extra early, give yourself plenty of time for layovers, and if you really need to be somewhere on a specific day, plan to arrive a day or two early if you can.
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6. Pack light, pack smart
If you can, travel with only a carry-on (it’s easier than it sounds, we promise!). Lines aren’t just long at airport security; they’re long to check luggage as well. If you absolutely must check a bag, be sure to put any valuables, medication, or anything else you simply cannot go without (the bridesmaid’s dress you need to wear, for example) in your carry-on.
If you’re flying basic economy, it’s actually a smart idea to have those items within easy reach in your carry-on as well. Basic economy passengers board last, which means there may not be space for your carry-on in the overhead by the time you board. If you get stuck checking your carry-on, be sure to move any important items to your personal item first.
AirTags can provide some peace of mind: Drop the AirTags in your luggage, and you can use your iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple Watch to track your bags’ location. If your luggage does get lost or delayed, you’re entitled to compensation.
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7. Download the airline’s app
Wait times to speak to an agent on the phone if your flight gets delayed or cancelled can be hours long. If something goes awry on your trip, the airline’s app is often the fastest avenue to a resolution. You can do everything from change your seat and track your luggage to rebook your flights or get updates on delays—and often, those updates come a lot faster via the app than text or email.
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8. Protect your investment
Many credit cards offer travel protection that includes coverage for cancellations, disruptions, delays, and lost luggage. If you have a card that comes with one or more of these perks, book your trip with that card to help cover you in case things go wrong. If you don’t, depending on the total cost of your trip, you may want to invest in travel insurance.
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