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While airfare has nudged upward over the past couple of months, it can still be considered “cheap.” As of September, it’s 19% cheaper than at its peak in June 2022 and 15% cheaper than it was a decade ago (and that’s without even adjusting for inflation).
But that doesn’t negate the fact that when you’re looking for last-minute flights, you’re going to get stuck with the most expensive ones.
Summer and the winter holidays are both peak seasons, which means that if you’re looking for a decent flight this holiday season, you’re going to have a difficult time finding one, especially this late in the game.
There are a number of factors impacting the cost of a plane ticket, like when you book, where you’re flying to, when you’re taking the flight, and even airline competition at the departure and arrival airport.
However, you shouldn’t let the recent spate of expensive fares trick you into overpaying. Here’s what’s happening with airfare and why there’s still tons of cheap flights coming around the bend.
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Why are flights so expensive right now?
Cheap flights aren’t gone forever—they just might be gone for the holidays.
The holidays are peak season
They’re vanishingly scarce right now because (a) holiday flights are expensive, and that’s true every year; (b) last-minute flights are expensive, and that’s true every year, and (c) last-minute holiday flights are especially expensive, always.
Last-minute flights are always pricey
There were ample cheap flights for the holidays months ago, and there are cheap post-New Year and spring flights available today. But finding great last-minute deals is rare, especially during the most popular (and expensive) times of the year to fly.
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The silver lining: Supply is outpacing demand
For a while, it was the other way around. There was a ton of pent-up travel demand after Covid, so tons of travelers were vying for relatively few seats on the planes.
Then, airplane production ramped up. Capacity on planes grew steadily for a couple of years, so airlines began lowering prices to get those seats filled.
These cheap flights may not last forever, but in the meantime, it means you’re far more likely to find a good deal—and a last-minute one at that.
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Fluctuating average fares don't really matter
An interesting fact about airfare is that you can’t book average fares. You can only book available fares. One passenger could book a ticket for $200 roundtrip, and their seatmate could book the same ticket for $600. Together, the average would be $400 roundtrip, but nobody actually paid $400.
The key to remember is that cheap flights are plentiful (even if you’re seeing sky-high fares when you search right now). Often, though, you have to start searching much earlier in order to lock in the lowest of them.
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How to still get a deal for the holidays
Here are eight of our top tips for locking in last-minute fares as cheaply as possible.
Be flexible with your destination
People normally follow this process when searching for flights: (1) Choose where you want to go, (2) choose when you want to go, (3) check flight prices. But by setting price as the last priority, it’s not surprising folks end up with expensive flights.
If you’re hoping to get a cheap flight and are a little more lax with where you travel, flip that three-step process on its head.
(1) See what cheap flights are currently available out of your home airport, whether through Going email alerts, our Deal Filters feature, or our app, (2) choose a destination, (3) choose your dates. By setting price as the top priority rather than the bottom priority, you’re far more likely to be the beneficiary of cheap flights.
Be flexible with your timing
Considering the time of year—you may want to fly home for the holidays, aka no flexibility on destination—you might need to be a bit more flexible with your timing. Try traveling when most people aren’t around the holidays. Below we lay out the days where you may see slightly lower-than-average fares around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve.
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Travel tip of the week
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For Thanksgiving, the Tuesday or Wednesday before are typically the most expensive days for departure, and the Sunday after is often the busiest travel day of the year. If you haven’t booked yet, avoid these dates! Travel the weekend before or week after to save.
For Christmas, you’ll likely pay the most if you depart on Sunday, December 22, or Monday, December 23. Travel on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day to save. Also, returning on December 31 vs. January 1 is optimal for both price and to avoid crowds.
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Be open to piecing together your itinerary
One of the best ways to travel for cheap—even when it’s not peak season—is to employ the Greek Islands Trick. It involves getting as close to your destination as possible for the cheapest cost, then taking an alternate mode of transportation—such as a regional flight, train, bus, ferry, or rental car—the rest of the way there.
On the flipside, you could reverse the rule and reposition yourself at an optimal airport on the departure end to snag a cheaper deal. For instance, if you live in Upstate New York and flights from your home airport are exorbitant, you could take a train or bus to NYC, Boston, or even Washington, DC, if that meant you could save several hundred dollars on flights.
When you don’t have flexibility, time your booking right
The best strategy is to use the Goldilocks Window—not too early, not too late, just right in the middle. For domestic, cheap flights are most likely to pop up 1–3 months in advance, while for international, it’s 2–8 months in advance.
During the summer or winter holidays, you should add a few months to that, meaning that while we’re well-past the Goldilocks Window for holiday flights, you may be able to find something post-holidays and throughout the spring if you dig.
Remember the 21-Day Rule
The cheapest fares often have a 21-day advance purchase requirement. So if there’s a specific flight you need and you’re hoping fares will come down, set three weeks out as the absolute final deadline to book. It’s exceptionally unlikely fares will get cheaper after that point; usually they tend to get far more expensive.
Try for two one-ways
In general, we try to dissuade travelers from booking two one-way tickets, as they’re almost always more expensive than booking a roundtrip ticket. There are a couple different reasons why. For long-haul international flights, airlines won’t make the cheapest fare classes available for one-way flights, only pricier fare classes. Also, when booking a roundtrip international ticket, the itinerary is pretty consistently on a single airline (or at least partner airlines).
But if you search for one-way tickets, you may be able to find a combined sum through two separate airlines—such as Delta on the way there and United on the way back—that is cheaper than a roundtrip on a single airline. It won’t always work out, but it’s always worth a shot.
Check budget airlines
Even if you basically never fly on budget airlines like Spirit, the one time to consider making an exception is if you need a last-minute flight. Last-minute fares tend to be pricey because airlines want to gouge business travelers—but business travelers rarely fly on Spirit. Ditto with Frontier, Allegiant, and other ultra-low-cost carriers.
As a result, last-minute flights tend to be much more affordable on budget airlines that primarily cater to leisure travelers.
Book flights now
While last-minute holiday flights are egregiously priced, flights in the new year are downright cheap. If your schedule allows, take advantage of the great fares we’re finding for Going members for travel after the holidays and into spring 2025.
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