🎧 The 7 states that will decide the 2024 election
The closest we’re going to get to knowing who’s going to win before we actually have the full results is by looking at the seven closely contested states this election year. Over the last few weeks, the Today, Explained podcast has leaned in close to listen to local reporters and voters in each of these very different battleground states. We’ve heard from hurricane survivors in North Carolina, women voters in Arizona, and Black Trump-interested voters in Pennsylvania, among others. And the picture that emerges is of very real and specific policy concerns that explain what Americans are voting on this year.
📹 What polls can actually tell us
This Vox video explains why polls are so frustratingly limited. The team talked to polling experts and researchers to understand why voters do not respond to their surveys, what they do to improve the response rate, and how “weighting” works — the process of manipulating a sample to make it more representative of the general voting population. The team turned this video around quickly so they could take into account the latest polls out there. Their big takeaway: Political polls can do a good job at capturing where voters stand in individual states or on specific issues, but when they are as close as they are this year, they can’t tell us who will win the election.
🎧 Why Trump and Republicans think they have a chance in Nevada
Okay, one thing we can pretty safely predict is that state polling is more correct and also more telling in this 2024 election year. And there’s no better statewide political forecaster than Jon Ralston. He correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election in Nevada the last three cycles. The last time a Republican won the state’s presidential contest was George W. Bush, in 2004. But while Ralston hasn't made his official prediction for 2024 quite yet, he has some hints, and Republicans are looking better in terms of registrations and early voting than in past years. We titled the corresponding episode of Today, Explained It's the economy, stupid, because the biggest issue for Nevadans is the economy. Nevada has one of the higher unemployment rates in the country. But inflation and the cost of things is top of mind for most American voters, nationwide. And as we learn, that’s why both candidates are promising voters so many tax credits, rebates, and freebies this year.
🎧 The crisis that could ensue if Harris wins narrowly
One big question this election season is also quite appropriate for spooky season: Could Trump try to flip the outcome of the election if he definitively loses and Harris wins? To understand the protections that have been put in place since 2020, and the possible ways Trump’s legal team could skirt them, you need to get deep into the details, as Andrew Prokop does in his piece. On the Today, Explained podcast, we also tackled the question. In the episode How Trump could steal the election, we walk through each step Trump and his team would need to take to make a win out of an actual electoral loss.
Your guide to coping with election anxiety
In case you’re wondering, you’re not alone in feeling wound up this year — and this is also not the first or only election season that’s ever caused stress. Every election brings a big unknown and a sense of being out of control. But in this helpful article, Allie Volpe makes some concrete suggestions for not spiraling out in your feelings. Top on her list is to focus on what issues or policies are causing you the most worry and why, rather than letting yourself drown in a generalized feeling of unease.
🎧 Why is horror so fun?
When my daughter and her friends visited a Haunted House last week, they spent a lot of the time staring at the floor, covering their mouths so they wouldn't scream, and stiffening their shoulders as they were chased by axe-wielding creepy clowns. I thought it was a preteen effort at being blasé, but after listening to this episode of the Unexplainable podcast, I realized they might have actually been protecting themselves from feeling too scared. The scientists in this episode discover through on-site Haunted House research that most people like being a little freaked out, just not overly so. They want to watch a slasher film, but be able to turn it off. Research shows that this applies to real life too: Most people like to be surprised by results, but just moderately. We don't like it when our predictions for anything are way off.
