I’ve been making annual flight predictions since 2022. Here’s how they’ve panned out: |
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2022: 12 for 17 (71%)
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2023: 10 for 13 (77%)
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2024: 10 for 12 (83%)
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I just graded my 2025 predictions: Once again, I went 10 for 12. See my report card here.
But now it’s time to look forward to 2026. For the past two years I’ve gone 10-for-12. Check back in a year to find out which 10 of the 12 predictions for 2026 came true.
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1. Flights will be cheaper than in 2025 |
After the increases of the past two years, I’m predicting average airfares to take a step down in 2026. A few reasons why.
First, I’m expecting overall air travel demand to decrease. Second, air travel capacity will go up, if just a few percent. Finally, many analysts foresee economic headwinds next year, which will prompt travelers to be more budget-conscious than they have been in the past few years.
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2. There will be fewer mistake fares than 2025 |
2025 was record-setting—16 mistake fares uncovered by our flight experts at Going. Although I would be thrilled to be wrong, in 2026, I think we’ll see fewer. (Remember, we don’t control the number of mistake fares—we just uncover them!)
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3. You’ll be able to bring liquids on airplanes again |
In July 2025, TSA got rid of the rule requiring travelers to take their shoes off when going through security. In 2026, with improved security technology, they’ll get rid of the 2006 rule limiting passengers to liquids 3.4 ounces or less. |
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4. More cheap flights to Japan this year |
In 2025, we found 246 different bona fide cheap flights to Japan. I think we’ll see even more in 2026. Airlines are increasing US-Japan capacity 4–5% in 2026, according to Cirium, including 13% more seats on American Airlines in Q1 and nearly 10% more on Japan Airlines and ANA. The boost in supply will push prices downward. |
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Generally speaking, there are three options for bankrupt airlines: slimmed-down survival, acquisition, or liquidation. I think Door #1 is all but closed at this point as Spirit continues to bleed cash. Instead, expect Spirit to fold or be sold. |
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6. Spirit will be bought by Frontier |
Shooting my shot: Spirit will be sold to Frontier! You may remember Spirit had originally agreed to be acquired by Frontier back in 2022, only for JetBlue to swoop in with a superior offer, only for federal courts to block that merger.
Well, today there’s a new administration, Spirit has declared bankruptcy twice since then, and appears to be teetering on the edge of insolvency. Frontier will buy it for far less than was offered in 2022.
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7. No bag fee hikes this year for the 6 biggest US airlines |
Nearly all of the big US airlines increased fees in 2024. Typically these things happen on a 5–7 year schedule, and usually among airlines as a cluster, so I’d be quite surprised if there are new bumps in 2026. |
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8. Air travel capacity will continue to grow |
In 2025, 9.99 million flights with 1.4 billion seats took off from US airports, according to Cirium. The number of seats is a record high, while the number of flights is 3% lower than in 2019. (Planes today are getting bigger on average.) Despite potential economic headwinds, this year we’ll see more flights and more seats than last year. |
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9. Fewer overall air travel passengers |
The number of air travel passengers set numerous records in 2025, including the busiest single day (11/30/2025), single month (July 2025), and year (2025). But the party will wind down in 2026. For the first time since 2009 (excluding the pandemic), we’ll see fewer people getting on planes in the US than the year prior. |
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10. Alaska will announce free wifi |
When wifi first became available in coffee shops like Starbucks, you had to pay. Pretty soon, though, it became free, and the idea of paying for wifi would come to seem absurd.
The same cycle is playing out with airlines. In the past few years, the biggest US airlines began offering free onboard wifi, sans one: Alaska. With their sister brand Hawaiian already offering fast Starlink onboard, expect Alaska to announce free wifi in 2026, as well.
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11. Delta will involuntarily bump fewer than 10 passengers all year |
Ever since footage of Dr. David Dao getting bloodied up and dragged off a plane caused United Airlines’ stock to plunge, airlines have been prodigious in offering credit or cash to get people to volunteer their seat when a flight oversells.
Delta—widely recognized as running the smoothest operation of any US airline—will have fewer than 10 passengers involuntarily denied boarding for the entire year.
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12. Allegiant Air will have the lowest rate of lost bags |
Budget airlines aren’t often thought of as the best at something, but when it comes to successfully delivering checked bags, it’s low-cost carriers that excel. That’s because they employ nonstop flights instead of the hub-and-spoke model used by full-service carriers. Bags are most commonly lost during a connection.
Allegiant will carry the day in 2026.
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Written by:
Scott Keyes, Going Co-Founder and Chief Flight Expert
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